Home loans, prices and price inflation

An increase in the banks’ risk appetite in the form of greater willingness to provide higher Loan-to-Value (LTV) bonds might increase the house price inflation outlook for 2014, according to Lightstone.

An increase in the banks’ risk appetite in the form of greater willingness to provide higher Loan-to-Value (LTV) bonds might increase the house price inflation outlook for 2014, according to Lightstone.

Paul-Roux de Kock of Lightstone explains that not only do banks determine the risk premium charged on potential property buyers, they also determine the maximum loan amount a buyer qualifies for.

If this loan ceiling is below the property seller’s asking price the potential buyer will have to cover the remainder with a deposit, he says.

Furthermore, he points out that loan amount granted relative to the transaction price of the property is referred to as the “Loan-to-Value” (LTV) of the transaction.

During the housing boom it was not uncommon for mortgage applicants to receive mortgage loans with a value equal to, or larger than the property’s purchase price.

Therefore, 21.6 percent of housing applicants received a loan of less than the purchase price of the property between 2005 and 2008, however, this value increased to 46 percent during the housing crash and has remained between 39 percent and 42 percent since 2009, according to De Kock.

“Potential increases in the number of property sales will have to be largely financed by banks which are still less likely to cover higher LTVs to the same extent as they did before 2008.”

 This means that in the absence of increased risk appetite by banks, we expect the amount of buyers to remain at similar levels to 2013 and therefore don’t expect increased market activity to drive up house price inflation, he notes.

De Kock points out that while interest rates and economic growth are key drivers of house price inflation, it is the effect on bonds and total housing transactions that should be studied carefully.

“The demand for housing in general, especially for first-time homeowners, is to a greater extent influenced by the banks’ willingness to provide loans.”

Lightstone data shows that the total number of housing transactions and mortgage bonds issued annually has remained fairly constant over the past three years at 235 000 and 122 500 respectively, while the total Rand value of transactions and bonds has, however, increased by roughly 24 percent over the same period.

“This is substantially higher than the 15 percent average growth recorded in house prices and this is due to the bigger impact of high value property transactions that take place in luxury markets where house price inflation was more subdued.”

FNB says the latest increase in interest rate has a positive side to it in the sense that it will probably curb any possibility of short-term speculative behaviour mounting.

Assuming banks’ lending strategies don’t tighten significantly over the next year, De Kock says they expect the total transaction value and value of newly issued bonds to hold this trend.

According to ooba data, property prices and bond sizes showed steady growth in January with the Average Purchase Price recording R956 112, up 6.9 percent y/y and 2.4 percent month-on-month, while the Average Approved Bond was R801 391, 5.4 percent higher y/y and 0.9 percent higher month-on-month.

The originator’s rate for January of 68.7 percent, showed a significant increase on December’s approval rate of 65.2 percent and January 2013’s rate of 65.7 percent.

Rhys Dyer, ooba chief executive officer, says January also showed strong activity in the first-time buyers' segment, with the First-time Buyers’ Purchase Price showing y/y appreciation of 9.9 percent and month-on-month appreciation of 6.4 percent at R754 487.

The Average Approved Bond Size for First-time Buyers was R650 000, and of ooba’s total applications in January, 52.5 percent were from first-time buyers.

“As the market improves, and banks ease their lending criteria, it is making it easier for first-time buyers to enter the market,” says Dyer.

House price growth and price inflation

Nominal year-on-year (y/y) growth in the average value of homes in the middle segment of theSouth African housing market remained in single digits in the first month of 2014 after tapering off during most of last year on the back of trends in the economy, household finances and consumer confidence.

Jacques du Toit, Absa Home Loans property analyst, explains that the average nominal y/y price growth of small homes in January was R764 000, R1 104 million for medium-sized homes and R1 710 million for large homes.

“Against the background of these developments, consumer confidence remains low, contributing to pressure on household consumption growth and the demand for credit.”

Absa expects nominal house price growth to remain in single-digits in 2014 while real house price deflation is projected for this year, based on the combined effect of expected trends nominal price growth and inflation.

Meanwhile, Lightstone data reveals that total y/y national house price growth was 7.4 percent at the end of December 2013 which was 0.15 percent above Lightstone’s optimistic forecast for last year.

Lightstone forecast for residential property price inflation for 2014 is slightly lower at 6.7 percent, and unless market conditions change dramatically, residential property price growth should close between 5.6 and 7.8 percent.

“The most likely factor that will subsidise more significant growth is an increased risk appetite from the banks – their risk appetite has remained relatively stable over the past three years but this may change as banks see signs of recovery in the economy,” says De Kock.

With just over 60 percent of the total value of new residential property transactions currently being bonded the risk appetite of banks plays a major role in the demand for formal housing and can be a big driver of house price inflation.

Therefore, 21.6 percent of housing applicants received a loan of less than the purchase price of the property between 2005 and 2008, however, this value increased to 46 percent during the housing crash and has remained between 39 percent and 42 percent since 2009, according to De Kock.

Current annual inflation rate is 6.10 percent and monthly is 0.51 percent, according to Lightstone.

Meanwhile, the FNB House Price Index shows that the average house price for January rose 7.9 percent y/y down from 8.2 percent in December with the average house price transacted at R924 261.

However, in nominal terms, the January average price was 122.5 percent higher than the January 2004 price level, but only 16.7 percent above the December 2007 level, writes FNB’s property strategist and analyst, John Loos and Theo Swanepoel.

Loos and Swanepoel explain that in a highly credit-driven market such as the residential property market, an interest rate “surprise” changes a lot.

“No longer do we expect a mild strengthening in 2014 but instead a mild slowdown in the market and while one lone interest rate hike doesn’t make a massive difference to instalment repayment values, we believe it will have a significant impact on buyer sentiment, because many aspirant buyers will know that interest rate hiking in South Africa, once it starts, normally doesn’t stop at one lone hike.”

FNB says the latest increase in interest rate has a positive side to it in the sense that it will probably curb any possibility of short-term speculative behaviour mounting.

As the hype around residential property grew in recent months, and house price growth got stronger, there was perhaps an increased risk of this unhealthy form of buying creeping into the market.

They note that the most obvious forms of demand to be constrained would be those that can be considered to be “luxury items” or non-essential purchases, such as buy-to-let property and holiday homes.

According to FNB, the primary residential demand will remain “king” and estate agents surveyed say primary residential buying remains at near 90 percent of total buying while buy-to-let, holiday property and buying residences for others, remains at around 10 percent.  

“Given that interest rate hiking introduces an increased affordability challenge, we would expect the higher end areas to be slightly more affected.”

The performance of and prospects for the residential property market will continue to be closely related to economic growth, trends in household finances, inflation, interest rates, consumer confidence and banks’ lending criteria, according to Du Toit.  

He adds that these factors will drive the affordability of housing and mortgage finance and will be reflected in property demand and supply conditions, price trends, market activity, buying patterns, transaction volumes and the demand for mortgage finance. – Denise Mhlanga

Taken from Property 24 News

Property ownership...

It has been reported by Standard Bank that, in the past two years, it has experienced 44% year on year growth in owner-occupied commercial property deals as a result of many companies have opting to purchase buildings for their own use rather than opting to renting. Read the full story in an article titled Significant upswing in Owner-Occupied Commercial Property deals.
Although much has been said about the cons of the residential property market because of the negative factors such as the difficulty in obtaining home loans, high price of construction, increasing municipality costs and the claims by economist, Erwin Rode that the property market is over-valued by 20%, Bruce Swain, MD of Leapfrog Property Group begs to differ. Continue reading this article on Investors Have Faith in Residential Property.

After we had shared the following joke on our Facebook page some time this week:"The dream of the older generation was to pay off a home loan and the dream of today's young families is to get one", it has come to our attention that actually around the world, young working people are increasingly attracted to home ownership rather than renting. But how easy is it for them to qualify for home loans? See an article titled More young guns set their sights on ownership to find out what Berry Everitt, MD of the Chas Everitt International property group says about this. 

Taken from TIVVIT newsletter.

CALLING ALL INVESTORS - Weak Rand good for luxury property

06 Feb 2014

The weak Rand is enabling South African luxury property buyers and high net worth individual investors to turn to bricks and mortar as a store of value, says Lew Geffen, chairman of Sotheby’s International Realty in SA.

Located in the lush suburb of Sandhurst inJohannesburg, this three bedroom home is selling for R10.5 million through Sotheby's International Realty Craighall. Click here to view.

Geffen explains that since the devaluation of the Argentinian peso and the Turkish lira sparked a loss of confidence in emerging markets, and a major sell-off that worsened with news of weaker Chinese manufacturing, political turmoil in Thailand and the platinum strike in SA - is likely to keep currencies like the Rand under pressure.

He says these buyers and investors know that property is much more likely to retain its value than cash in such situations and their moves to protect their assets against depreciation have added further impetus to the top end of the residential property market, which has in any case been performing well for the past year.

As an example, he says they sold a property in Sandhurst for R20 million to a Johannesburg executive and on the Atlantic Seaboard a house was sold for R50 million to a South Africa buyer.  

“At the same time, the lower Rand exchange rate has resulted in an increase in foreign buyers who are now able to acquire much more property with their dollars, euros and pounds than they could have a year ago.”

Geffen notes that the Atlantic Seaboard especially is seeing huge demand from European buyers who have already exchanged their currency and are ready to buy just about anything priced at under R5 million– which equates to about €350 000 currently.

Sotheby’s International Realty is also seeing a trend for offshore money to make its way back to SA to be invested in local property.

“This is money that local investors or expats hold in offshore accounts and which currently attracts very low rates of interest,” he says.

According to Geffen, many of these investors buying in SA currently stand to make returns of at least 6 to 10 percent, he points out that they are free to take the money out of the country again if and when they resell.

Popular choices for such investors are resort and retirement areas such as the Cape West Coast, the Garden Route and the KwaZulu-Natal North Coast.

Taken from Property 24 News

Repo rate hike...

It is a known fact that South Africans are persistent survivors and no mountain will ever be too high for us to conquer. The world has thrown all kinds of obstacles our way but every day, we soldier on.

Although the recent decision by the Reserve Bank to raise interest rates by 50 basis points will undoubtedly put something of a damper on the property market recovery, Shaun Rademeyer, CEO of BetterBondHome Loans is predicting that, as always, we will survive. Read the full story on Rate hike a comma, not a full stop.

While the latest interest rate increase may well take some gloss off the process, the South African residential property market will nevertheless continue to settle into a “new normal” mode. Continue reading this article on SA homes market now in "new normal" mode.

Will the latest repo rate increase be followed by others?Read the article below to find out what Bill Rawson, Chairman of the Rawson Property Group is saying about this possibility.
On the other News, it has been reported that there is Water crisis in SA. Investigation spanning all nine provinces has revealed the extent of South Africa’s water emergency and the growing pressure on government to deal with it. See the full story below.

Last but not least, read about a town that was once called 12-Myl-Pos, meaning 12 Mile Post, since it is located 20 km from Cape Town city centre, and because it was originally founded as a railway station on the line from Cape Town to Stellenbosch and Strand. Learn more about Bellville on the Focus On section of this week's Newsletter. 

Taken from Tivvit News

4 things to consider when renting

Renting for the first time? Worried about missing something? Here a 4 things to remember before you rent...

At one point or another, the majority of us will rent a property, usually at a time in our lives when we’re climbing the career ladder or looking for a place to settle.

And renting does provide a number of advantages over buying. But before you jump into signing a contract to rent a property, there are a few things you should consider.

Research

If you’re renting for the first time you’re going to have to do plenty of research. Even if you’ve found a property within your budget, there are still extra costs to keep in mind. You’ll have to pay for water, electricity, food, parking, agent fees etc.

Many first time renters overlook these costs, and find themselves in for quite a surprise when they finally sign a contract. Make sure you look at the costs of such bills and work those into your budget.

T&Cs

One thing that often catches out renters are the terms and conditions. You need to make sure that you work through them with a fine tooth comb. You’ll want to look out for things like renewal processes, the requirements of your landlord, the maintenance and upkeep of the property, and anything else that could end up catching you out.

If you’re unsure of anything in the terms and conditions then make sure that you ask your agent.

Property maintenance

Before you sign anything you need to know whose obligation the properties maintenance is. If there are issues with the flat, I.E a faulty boiler, shower, or sockets then who is responsible to fix these? You don’t want to be paying for them to be fixed so make sure that the landlord deals with these problems accordingly, or your initial cost is reduced.

Take pictures of everything

Once you’ve moved in, before doing anything else, take pictures of the property. Then, if the landlord says that you broke something during your stay, you can prove that it was actually broken before you arrived.

If you’d like to discuss renting opportunities in Bloemfontein then get in touch with us today. 

Homeowners under strain sell and rent

The FNB report recently revealed Reasons for selling property in SA and 14 percent of sellers in the fourth quarter of 2013 were selling due to financial pressure.

A four bedroom home in Lovemore Heights inPort Elizabeth is selling for R3.395 million. Click here to view.

Estate agents surveyed in the report noted that some of those sellers either bought cheaper properties or opted to rent instead.

According to Jaco Rademeyer, principal and owner of Jaco Rademeyer Estates, in his area of operation in Port Elizabeth, most people are looking to upgrade their lifestyles or downscale.

He notes a number of homeowners under financial pressure who sell their homes and rent afterwards.

Asked what the value of homes they own are, he says most of them own homes priced in the region of R3 million and above.

“They “downscale” on price or go and rent and try to settle debt with the profit they make out of their property.”

Rademeyer says also of note is that holiday homes, because they are more of a lifestyle investment, are usually the first properties that people put on the market as these types of properties for many are underutilised and not income generating.

Located in Framesby in Port Elizabeth, this three bedroom house is priced at R1.195 million. Click here to view.

However, he is upbeat about 2014 pointing to increased residential activity in their area with more buyers qualifying for home loans and actually buying property.

What’s more, he says they are seeing a slight increase in property prices as well activity in the development of new homes – after three years of non activity in this sector.

So while others are selling because of financial pressure, he says the current low interest rate environment is ideal to buy property provided one can afford that property and has the money or can get home loan finance.

Also, he advises would-be buyers to invest in an area that offers good amenities such as schools (for those with children) and shopping centres.

Rademeyer points out that those buying currently tend to prefer estate living or freehold properties in a secure environment – security is undoubtedly essential in decision-making for many buyers.

On popular price bracket, he says in Port Elizabeth, middle income bracket properties priced around R1.5 million are snapped up as soon as they are listed. – Denise Mhlanga

Property 24 News

What does 2014 hold in for the Property game in South Africa

With 2014 set to be a milestone year for the country as we celebrate 20 years of democracy and head into an elections year that is likely to dominate the landscape, Seeff chairman Samuel Seeff says that there is much to be upbeat about.

This year may well be the year where we see the first signs of real growth since 2007 with potential double-digit price growth in the primary urban areas a real possibility, according to Seeff.

Following five years of inhibited growth and, while still a telling tale of two halves, activity in the primary urban areas has strengthened notably this year and is now at one of the healthiest levels since 2009.

“This year may well be the year where we see the first signs of real growth since 2007 with potential double-digit price growth in the primary urban areas a real possibility,” he explains.

He says they experienced one of the best winter periods with turnover of more than R2.5 billion for the June to August period in 2013 and the demand has carried into the summer months.

Seeff says their turnover for the year is up by 20 percent year-on-year (y/y) and at the best levels in almost a 50-year history, with all areas showing significant growth and similar agent numbers to last year.

He notes that primary areas in the Cape metropolitan areas have improved y/y by around 25 percent while a resurgence of activity in the Winelands/Boland and West Coast has seen turnover climb by 54 percent.

The Garden Route, Karoo and Eastern Cape continue to see sustained y/y improvement in demand, although still primarily in the residential sector.

The northern region, most notably the Gauteng metropolitan areas have seen turnover growth of 21 percent with the greater Sandton area up by 37 percent y/y on the back of strong demand.

Following two years of back-to-back 25 percent growth, the KwaZulu-Natal region’s turnover is up by 31 percent, according to Seeff.

Furthermore, he points out that their data shows improved activity in the primary urban sector with some spill-over into other sectors.

More buyers at show houses, multiple offers and better prices for sellers along with shrinking inventories all point to greater normalcy in the market, says Seeff.

Meanwhile, he says banks continue to make gains in reducing the distressed stock and this in turn should further stimulate demand in the primary sector.

While economists are increasingly pointing to a potential interest rate hike towards the last quarter of 2014, Seeff says that for now though the interest rate remains at the lowest level in more than three decades and will continue to boost home affordability.

On the back of this, there is good reason to be positive about the outlook for the housing market next year.

“While still too early to talk about a major recovery especially in view of the wider economic landscape, we are moving in the right direction and there is now more balance in the market.”

Although price gains on the whole will remain conservative, sellers could look forward to shorter selling times and good offers provided the pent up demand persists into next year.

“We may even start seeing double-digit price growth in the high demand areas,” says Seeff.

The protracted low demand in the coastal and second home markets though is likely to continue with buyers still negotiating strongly.

Although there has been some marginal easing of the mortgage loan criteria, we do not foresee any real growth in mortgage lending as the continued high levels of household indebtedness will continue to impede overall sales volumes, according to Seeff.

The sub-R1.5 million primary sector is likely to be the most robust with the trend towards smaller, more compact and cost effective housing being the primary driver of demand.

Secure complexes, gated estates and areas closer to schools, major arterials and feeder roads to business nodes are likely to see the biggest demand, says Seeff.

While economists are increasingly pointing to a potential interest rate hike towards the last quarter of 2014, Seeff says that for now though, the interest rate remains at the lowest level in more than three decades and will continue to boost home affordability.

While there are increasing pockets of excellence where the pendulum is swinging towards a sellers’ market, conditions will continue to favour buyers.

For those that can and want to buy, the time is now. Sellers looking to trade up can now also look forward to better selling prices and can in turn take advantage of the favourable buying conditions.

Seeff says the pressure on household budgets is likely to grow further given the rather uninspiring macro-economic outlook.

Although price gains on the whole will remain conservative, sellers could look forward to shorter selling times and good offers provided the pent up demand persists.

Prospective buyers are therefore cautioned to allow for potential interest and other basic living cost hikes and should buy below their means rather than stretching right now.

Now, more than ever, they should cut back on non-essentials and put their spare cash into their bonds and wherever possible and create a buffer against cost and interest rate hikes, he says.

Recovery of the market is likely to be slow and arduous with the primary, sub-R1.5 million sector picking up the bulk of the momentum as we have seen this year.

Only once we start seeing more normalised sales volumes of around 25 000 per month that would equate to an increase of about 25 percent on current volumes, can we expect to see any real uptick in prices and only then are we likely to see a real spill-over into the secondary, luxury and trophy homes sector of the market.

Although activity in 2013 has been somewhat better compared to preceding years, this sector of the market is likely to remain under pressure with buyers very particular about what they are looking for and how much they are prepared to pay.

While the low interest rate certainly supports demand, the key macro-economic indicators, most notably economic and job growth will continue to be the drivers of the housing market.

The modest economic outlook and continued uncertainty will continue to weigh on the market throughout next year, but for now at least, we can derive real encouragement from the improved activity and look forward to a somewhat more robust 2014, he adds.

Taken from Property 24 news.